Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6D 0x6df6…3445 crypto 813 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,698 (+1%) realized +$2,682 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate87%709W / 103L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$828
14 days+$2,640
30 days+$1,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,386
other 0% +$153
sports 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +6.5% -3.6% 86% 51% -4.6%
≤30d 780 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 31% -8.8%
≤90d 812 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 31% -8.8%
all 812 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 31% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 31% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 13% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 7% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$188 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$2,682
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses709 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)812 / 813
History coverage31d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$72 +119%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $203 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$26 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$39 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$31 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 4m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.30 · official $216.30 (match) · 1689 history records