Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6df1…3661 weather 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
Total PnL +$192 (+3%) realized +$105 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%119W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$134
14 days+$106
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$216
weather 31% −$24
sports 12% −$63
crypto 3% −$9
world 3% +$8
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 12% -0.5%
≤30d 84 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 215 -8.1% -16.9% 48% 31% -7.6%
all 242 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 33% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 33% -7.4%
10% -21.9% 27% -16.2%
15% -29.4% 24% -24.3%
20% -36.3% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1,264
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses119 / 123
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)242 / 247
History coverage111d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $336 $314 −$22 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $260 $302 +$42 (+16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $244 $246 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $200 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 23? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 22? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 20? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 21? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 24? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$9 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 −$9 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 +$20 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $239 −$12 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $59 −$13 -22%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $358 +$162 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $63 −$8 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $16 −$8 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$21 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $14 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28? May 29 $10 +$20 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $12 +$17 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? May 28 $9 +$21 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $135 +$24 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $34 +$13 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $26 +$24 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $34 +$23 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $22 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $18 −$9 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 24? May 25 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $11 +$19 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $22 +$13 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? May 24 $9 +$11 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23? May 24 $12 +$13 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23? May 24 $16 +$14 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $207 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $203 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $194 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $164 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $246 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $50 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $172 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $226 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $172 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $45 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $239 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $47 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $520 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $59 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 56¢ $41 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,264.45 · official $1,264.45 (match) · 858 history records