Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6df0…5f31 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$28
sports 11% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 79% -10.7%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 79% -10.7%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 79% -10.7%
all 14 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 79% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 79% -10.7%
10% -19.4% 57% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 7% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 +$23 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 79¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records