Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6def…0d85 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$890 (-13%) realized −$890 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days−$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$8
sports 25% +$90
crypto 15% −$401
politics 13% −$933
world 12% +$167
tech 7% +$271
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.0% +25.7% 100% 100% +25.7%
≤30d 7 -68.4% -71.4% 14% 14% -78.5%
≤90d 29 -27.6% -34.5% 34% 34% -36.7%
all 58 -18.7% -26.4% 38% 36% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 36% -21.6%
10% -33.5% 34% -29.1%
15% -39.9% 33% -36.0%
20% -45.8% 24% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$100 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$890
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage315d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $101 +$39 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 31 $204 −$200 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $100 −$17 -18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $204 −$200 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 13 $207 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 13 $205 +$113 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 07 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 03 $103 −$100 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $100 +$420 +420%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $100 +$72 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $100 +$150 +150%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 28 $100 −$99 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $100 +$43 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $100 +$18 +18%
Islanders vs. Ducks Mar 05 $100 −$91 -91%
Thunder vs. Bulls Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Celtics Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $300 +$111 +37%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 23 $200 +$150 +75%
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $200 +$390 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$99 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $100 +$245 +245%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 19 $200 +$192 +96%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 19 $100 +$56 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$24 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 17 $100 −$88 -88%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 16 $200 −$12 -6%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $100 +$212 +212%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $39 +$22 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 62¢ $140 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $141 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 48¢ $41 14d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 23d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 50¢ $204 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 42¢ $83 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $204 26d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 19¢ $102 37d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 18¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $139 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 14¢ $103 49d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $101 51d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 15¢ $103 51d
Oilers vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 46¢ $20 53d
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? BUY No 81¢ $100 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $143 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $100 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $100 62d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 50¢ $100 62d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $100 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $138.57 · 92 history records