Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6ded…79fe world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 13% −$6
sports 7% $0
finance 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -11.4% -19.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -10.5% -19.1% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 29 -16.1% -24.1% 21% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -11.9%
10% -31.4% 0% -20.3%
15% -38.0% 0% -28.0%
20% -44.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage474d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $86 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 20 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 11 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 19m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $29 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $2 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $33 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records