Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6dec…b451
crypto · 13 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$3 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 51¢ 62¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.8% +4.7% 58% 42% +1.6%
≤30d 12 +15.8% +4.7% 58% 42% +1.6%
≤90d 12 +15.8% +4.7% 58% 42% +1.6%
all 12 +15.8% +4.7% 58% 42% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 42% +1.6%
10% -5.3% 42% -8.1%
15% -14.4% 33% -17.0%
20% -22.8% 25% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records