Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6D 0x6dec…c9d7 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+2%) realized +$63 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$291
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$69
sports 14% +$161
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +53.7% +39.1% 63% 58% +10.6%
≤30d 22 +46.8% +32.9% 59% 55% +4.9%
≤90d 22 +46.8% +32.9% 59% 55% +4.9%
all 22 +46.8% +32.9% 59% 55% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 55% +4.9%
10% +20.1% 55% -5.2%
15% +8.5% 45% -14.3%
20% -2.1% 36% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$33 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $94 $69 −$25 (-26%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goa Jun 25 $5 +$9 +184%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 24 $5 +$7 +147%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$50 +122%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $165 −$5 -3%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $181 +$15 +8%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $295 −$114 -39%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $192 +$66 +34%
France leading at halftime? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Fra Jun 23 $10 +$34 +334%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 +$67 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $20 +$28 +138%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $111 +$183 +165%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 −$109 -62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$75 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 19¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $204 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 14¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goa BUY 35¢ $5 26h
Morocco to win the second half? AND Morocco leading at halftime? BUY 50¢ $5 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 68¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $1 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $5 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 40¢ $5 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $41 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $149 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 37¢ $19 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $149 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 33¢ $26 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $196 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $181 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $181 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $193 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $193 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 2d
France leading at halftime? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Fra SELL 92¢ $44 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $58 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $182 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.72 · official $118.48 · 63 history records