Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dec…4ecd other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
other 33% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 4% +$1
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 14% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -10.1%
all 53 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $118 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -5%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 10 $18 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $18 $0 -1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 38h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.95 · official $40.95 (match) · 164 history records