Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dec…65f9 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$48
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 36% -19.8%
≤30d 22 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 36% -19.8%
≤90d 22 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 36% -19.8%
all 22 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 36% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 36% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 36% -27.4%
15% -9.1% 36% -34.5%
20% -18.0% 36% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 6¢ 10¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$97 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$44 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$68 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$48 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$42 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 3¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 6¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.75 · official $4.75 (match) · 54 history records