Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6de4…7516 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%52W / 60L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$39
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$99
other 11% +$4
politics 9% +$2
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.7% 41% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 41 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 7% -8.7%
all 112 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 6% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses52 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage472d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $569 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $235 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $234 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $716 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $211 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $230 +$3 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $231 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $458 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $253 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$7 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $260 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $410 +$42 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $240 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $392 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$3 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $214 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $515 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $197 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $215 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $383 −$16 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $187 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $456 −$5 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $106 +$8 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $66 +$5 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $221 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $182 +$40 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $104 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $156 +$6 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $47 +$15 +32%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $21 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $3 $0 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $22 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $234 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $99 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $135 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $90 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $144 7h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $235 12h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $235 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $19 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $112 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $103 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $153 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $81 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $101 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $101 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $35 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $137 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $123 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $234 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $234 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $218 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $235 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $173 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $211 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.38 · official $235.38 (match) · 434 history records