Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6de1…5301
weather · 902 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$96 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$103 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$364
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses656 / 199
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions47
Markets (closed)855 / 902
History coverage45d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 47 History 855 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$19
14 days+$43
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 71¢ 67¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 79¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 79¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 31¢ 37¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 58¢ 68¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 64¢ 74¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 74¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 88¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 80¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? No 67¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 79¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 84¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 66¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 83¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? No 43¢ 44¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 65¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 77¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 70¢ 71¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 93¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$4 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 72% +$65
sports 28% −$161
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $7 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 43¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +3.6% -6.3% 82% 58% -6.3%
≤30d 432 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 49% -9.1%
≤90d 855 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 37% -11.5%
all 855 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 37% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 23% -20.0%
15% -26.6% 14% -27.7%
20% -33.8% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.03 · official $364.15 (match) · 3500 history records