Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6ddc…e045 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%50W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$11
sports 18% −$19
other 16% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -14.4%
≤30d 79 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -14.4%
≤90d 79 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -14.4%
all 79 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 52% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 52% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 38% -22.6%
15% -32.3% 20% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses50 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -64%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records