Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6ddc…03c3 sports 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,035 (+7%) realized +$9,035 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%107W / 208L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$545est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$732
7 days+$2,047
14 days+$7,082
30 days+$3,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,276
other 48% +$10,889
world 0% −$462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.8% -1.6% 57% 29% +29.3%
≤30d 20 +59.3% +44.1% 40% 30% +13.1%
≤90d 119 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 29% -4.3%
all 315 -0.0% -9.5% 34% 32% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 32% -4.1%
10% -18.2% 32% -13.3%
15% -26.1% 32% -21.7%
20% -33.3% 32% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$609) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$761 vs −$361 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses107 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions0
Markets (closed)315 / 315
History coverage167d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 315 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $498 −$39 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $1,686 +$2,079 +123%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,341 −$1,261 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $78 +$1 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $1,792 +$2,574 +144%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $925 −$925 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1,423 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,585 +$2,814 +178%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 +$2,553 +1149%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $482 +$2,051 +426%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $1,137 −$1,137 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1,474 −$1,474 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 06 $20 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $242 −$242 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $456 −$456 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $1,142 +$862 +75%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $822 −$822 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $1,248 −$1,230 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp May 25 $112 −$109 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $388 −$357 -92%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,010 +$1,530 +152%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $788 +$1,527 +194%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $536 +$1,273 +237%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $857 −$857 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,285 +$1,949 +152%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1,241 +$1,241 +100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1,083 +$1,922 +178%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,148 −$1,126 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,553 +$1,679 +108%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $926 +$1,279 +138%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $916 −$916 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 04 $406 −$399 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,014 +$2,055 +203%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $989 +$2,134 +216%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $985 +$2,240 +227%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $880 +$2,259 +257%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 02 $423 −$423 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $467 −$467 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 02 $724 −$724 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $703 −$12 -2%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $981 +$1,742 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prel Apr 25 $889 −$889 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Theodor Berggren 17¢ $459 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $115 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $133 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $85 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $7 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $74 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $7 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $77 2h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 100¢ $3,766 2h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $6 3h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $1,680 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $690 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $617 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 4¢ $77 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 4¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $352 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $12 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $42 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $61 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $7 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $47 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1657 history records