Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd9…1024 culture 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable culture specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,758 (+8%) realized +$2,190 · open −$432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%30W / 30L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 46% +$43
other 27% −$1,179
world 16% +$335
crypto 8% +$225
politics 2% +$15
sports 1% −$231
tech 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +54.6% +39.9% 50% 38% -7.6%
≤30d 48 +24.9% +13.0% 52% 42% +0.0%
≤90d 60 +12.7% +1.9% 50% 37% -11.5%
all 60 +12.7% +1.9% 50% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 37% -11.5%
10% -7.8% 28% -20.0%
15% -16.7% 22% -27.7%
20% -24.9% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$145 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$3,253
Realized+$2,190
Unrealized−$432
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)60 / 72
History coverage75d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $624 $732 +$109 (+17%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $434 $719 +$285 (+66%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $315 $398 +$83 (+26%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 56¢ 63¢ $351 $397 +$46 (+13%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $389 $332 −$57 (-15%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 20¢ 49¢ $100 $245 +$145 (+145%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $315 $80 −$235 (-75%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 58m and 64m? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $515 $47 −$468 (-91%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+96%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 64m and 70m? Yes 20¢ 7¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? No 63¢ 14¢ $76 $16 −$60 (-79%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $122 $10 −$113 (-92%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 25¢ 86¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+246%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $16 $3 −$14 (-83%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $65 $2 −$63 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 18 $300 −$112 -37%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 18 $600 +$381 +64%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 17 $65 +$45 +69%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 17 $256 −$231 -90%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $862 +$317 +37%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1,042 −$119 -11%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $166 +$282 +170%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $4 +$40 +900%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 15 $720 +$716 +99%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $129 +$8 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $1,110 +$57 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $45 −$17 -38%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 13 $1,188 −$907 -76%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 11 $325 +$127 +39%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $348 +$52 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$7 +138%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $176 +$24 +14%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $486 +$114 +23%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $590 +$377 +64%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $317 +$186 +59%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 08 $31 −$14 -46%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -21%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $60 +$162 +270%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $298 −$7 -2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 06 $132 −$93 -70%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $210 +$60 +29%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $79 −$9 -11%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 05 $145 −$4 -3%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on Jun 04 $20 −$10 -49%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m Jun 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 01 $46 +$8 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $679 +$191 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,225 +$34 +3%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $553 +$299 +54%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 6m? May 30 $70 −$22 -32%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha May 29 $100 −$81 -82%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m May 27 $1,195 +$83 +7%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 24 $55 −$39 -71%
Will Trump say "China" during events with Brazilian president? May 23 $13 −$11 -84%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $24 +$72 +300%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $176 +$29 +17%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $120 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 30¢ $147 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 18¢ $177 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 10h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? SELL Yes 32¢ $49 10h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 10h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 12h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 12h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY Yes 62¢ $65 12h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 13h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 13h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $28 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $19 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $38 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $17 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $5 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $0 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL No 57¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,252.65 · official $3,253.28 (match) · 634 history records