Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6dd9…bfe8 sports 690 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,220 (+9%) realized +$18,260 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%384W / 298L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$2,659est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$5,724
world 7% +$896
politics 5% +$2,443
other 1% +$240
crypto 1% +$110
tech 1% −$32
culture 0% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 42% -5.6%
≤30d 495 +5.8% -4.2% 58% 50% -3.7%
≤90d 682 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 50% -5.5%
all 682 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 50% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -14.6%
15% -22.1% 38% -22.8%
20% -29.7% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$177 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2,824
Realized+$18,260
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses384 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,659
Open positions8
Markets (closed)682 / 690
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$310
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 91¢ 92¢ $1,274 $1,281 +$7 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1,076 $1,067 −$9 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $144 $166 +$22 (+16%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $86 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 81¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 23¢ 26¢ $69 $80 +$10 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 17¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $135 +$19 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,160 +$204 +18%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $181 −$47 -26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $204 +$2 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $285 +$30 +10%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $741 −$5 -1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $708 −$183 -26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $515 +$55 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $123 −$19 -16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $173 +$7 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $241 +$5 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $211 +$35 +16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $1,112 +$26 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $382 +$103 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $144 −$10 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5,906 +$951 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $410 −$122 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $656 +$29 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $243 +$57 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $649 +$15 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $193 +$207 +107%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $220 +$100 +46%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $532 +$181 +34%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $526 +$27 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $564 +$12 +2%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $645 −$212 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $2,062 +$108 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 15 $282 −$282 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $130 +$70 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $455 +$45 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $164 +$36 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $255 +$45 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $87 −$45 -51%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $136 −$125 -92%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $451 −$242 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $79 +$22 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $244 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $78 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 90¢ $90 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $200 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $77 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 77¢ $155 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 21¢ $113 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 21¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $64 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $327 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $67 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $67 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $259 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 77¢ $88 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 77¢ $66 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $135 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $184 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $186 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $25 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $30 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $54 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $658 2h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 91¢ $117 7h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 91¢ $156 7h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $116 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 52¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $129 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,823.61 · official $2,823.61 (match) · 3500 history records