Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd9…08f6 sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%21W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
politics 26% −$4
other 18% −$5
crypto 9% −$1
culture 7% −$2
economics 5% −$1
world 5% −$2
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 174 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses21 / 153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage167d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $413 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $104 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $196 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $45 $0 -1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $79 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $38 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 12d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $31 26d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $31 26d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $35 34d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $36 34d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $40 82d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $40 82d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $35 82d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $35 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $32 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 83d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $36 83d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $36 83d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 83d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 89¢ $36 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $14 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $24 84d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $36 84d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $36 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 84d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 84d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 94¢ $37 84d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $37 85d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 85d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 85d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $41 85d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $41 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.90 · official $40.90 (match) · 732 history records