Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6D 0x6dd8…fd8c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +146% what you keep after slip
Net edge+146%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$3
crypto 29% +$1
economics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+145.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 3 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 0% -12.5%
all 9 +171.8% +145.9% 78% 11% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +145.9% 11% -10.1%
10% +122.4% 11% -18.7%
15% +100.9% 11% -26.6%
20% +81.2% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +172% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage261d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Jun 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 13 $70 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $37 +$1 +2%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $38 −$6 -16%
Will PewDiePie’s next video get 2.0 million or more views on week 1? Nov 02 $1 +$9 +1567%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 02 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $62 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $62 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $69 23d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 74d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $70 104d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $38 234d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $32 234d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $38 237d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $37 237d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 260d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 260d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $10 261d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $10 261d
Will PewDiePie’s next video get 2.0 million or more views on week 1? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.97 · official $61.97 (match) · 43 history records