Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd6…b643 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,060 (-36%) realized −$7,060 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$848per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$6,693
14 days−$6,454
30 days−$6,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$7,390
politics 1% −$154
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.4% -39.8% 17% 0% -59.5%
≤30d 10 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 30% -50.4%
≤90d 19 -23.0% -30.3% 37% 32% -49.7%
all 23 -29.3% -36.0% 30% 26% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 26% -51.3%
10% -42.1% 22% -55.9%
15% -47.7% 17% -60.2%
20% -52.9% 9% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$822) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -65% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$526 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage111d
Avg bet$848
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,562 −$105 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,085 −$4,699 -66%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $109 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $900 −$203 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,128 −$463 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,518 −$1,223 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $426 −$79 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $822 +$318 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $444 +$190 +43%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$43 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 16 $100 +$54 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $200 +$240 +120%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $200 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $100 +$27 +27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $227 −$154 -68%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $75 −$75 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 26 $134 −$134 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $604 −$604 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 17 $100 −$35 -34%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 17 $500 −$500 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 12 $116 −$3 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $908 −$100 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $157 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $211 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $169 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $112 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $123 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $182 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $181 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $176 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $146 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $58 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $12 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $26 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $61 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $62 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $21 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $42 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $42 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $42 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $880 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $132 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records