Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd6…f5f4 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$153,200 (+62%) realized +$151,997 · open +$1,203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate41%59W / 84L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,162per market
Trades / day132.4pace
Fees−$2,598est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$61,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$11,081
other 17% −$1,159
world 6% −$610
politics 5% −$303
crypto 2% +$37
tech 0% +$17
finance 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -51.2% -55.8% 27% 13% -17.7%
≤30d 143 -34.8% -41.0% 41% 22% -12.4%
≤90d 143 -34.8% -41.0% 41% 22% -12.4%
all 143 -34.8% -41.0% 41% 22% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 22% -12.4%
10% -46.6% 17% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -51.8% 8% -28.4%
20% -56.5% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$369 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$61,951
Realized+$151,997
Unrealized+$1,203
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses59 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,598
Open positions91
Markets (closed)143 / 115
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$2,162
Trades / day132.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $8,430 $9,062 +$633 (+8%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 83¢ 86¢ $4,328 $4,496 +$167 (+4%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 74¢ 81¢ $3,882 $4,221 +$339 (+9%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $3,528 $3,776 +$248 (+7%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $3,616 $3,657 +$42 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $3,342 $3,374 +$32 (+1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 32¢ $3,166 $3,191 +$25 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $2,830 $2,655 −$175 (-6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $1,507 $1,736 +$229 (+15%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,558 $1,671 +$113 (+7%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 69¢ 61¢ $1,754 $1,532 −$222 (-13%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,420 $1,396 −$24 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,096 $1,150 +$55 (+5%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $1,062 $1,098 +$36 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,010 +$10 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $919 $916 −$3 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $850 $905 +$55 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $900 $845 −$55 (-6%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 80¢ 100¢ $611 $761 +$150 (+25%)
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $701 $758 +$57 (+8%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 86¢ 91¢ $692 $728 +$36 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $719 $726 +$7 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $672 $700 +$28 (+4%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $715 $675 −$40 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $655 $671 +$16 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Paddy Pimblett next? Jun 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will France win? Jun 20 $53 −$162 -305%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $970 −$1,287 -133%
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main C Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 20 $268 −$576 -215%
Will England win? Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Boxing: Serrano vs. Taylor Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 20 $7 −$66 -884%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 20 $1 −$22 -3517%
Grant vs. Jourdain Jun 20 $444 −$440 -99%
Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jun 20 $123 −$93 -76%
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $1,259 −$1,692 -134%
Will King Green win by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $2,432 −$1,742 -72%
Boxing: Lopez vs. Stevenson Jun 20 $25 −$16 -64%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle (Women's Bantamwei Jun 20 $520 −$592 -114%
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Pulyaev Jun 20 $286 −$208 -73%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Jun 20 $1,598 −$1,598 -100%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Jun 20 $1,498 −$1,494 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Jun 20 $1,093 −$1,047 -96%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 20 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Jun 20 $316 −$331 -105%
UFC Fight Night: Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterweight, Pr Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 20 $856 −$2,246 -262%
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $105 −$159 -152%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes? Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Wimbledon: Draper vs. Cilic Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Jun 20 $807 −$972 -120%
Will BTS release any tracks in 2025? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Haqparast vs. Salkilld Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Jun 20 $187 −$140 -75%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 20 $17 −$168 -1020%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $324 −$324 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Preli Jun 20 $381 −$364 -96%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? Jun 20 $178 −$155 -87%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Jun 20 $219 −$612 -279%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Jun 20 $1,110 −$1,736 -156%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? Jun 20 $224 −$224 -100%
Fiorot vs. Jasudavicius Jun 20 $259 −$240 -93%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $1 −$46 -5566%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $206 +$837 +405%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 15¢ $79 5m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 12¢ $24 5m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 11¢ $13 7m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 22¢ $10 8m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 22¢ $8 8m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 13¢ $31 8m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 35¢ $37 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 35¢ $10 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 35¢ $18 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 35¢ $5 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 30¢ $40 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 30¢ $5 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 30¢ $15 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $4 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $7 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $7 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $1 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $4 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $5 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $6 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $4 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $3 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $4 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $1 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 9¢ $0 11m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 8¢ $40 12m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 20¢ $99 15m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 20¢ $1 15m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 30¢ $14 21m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 30¢ $40 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,950.56 · official $61,951.10 (match) · 3500 history records