Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd4…c9ac crypto 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,100 (+5%) realized +$1,100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%112W / 68L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$343
14 days−$343
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$121
weather 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.6% -33.6% 47% 36% -19.0%
≤30d 36 -26.6% -33.6% 47% 36% -19.0%
≤90d 115 -22.4% -29.8% 52% 34% -10.5%
all 180 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 41% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 41% -8.8%
10% -27.5% 17% -17.5%
15% -34.5% 7% -25.5%
20% -40.9% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses112 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage96d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $166 −$42 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $139 −$135 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $179 −$73 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $268 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $125 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $255 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $181 −$80 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $119 −$50 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $135 +$43 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $127 −$50 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $99 −$36 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $80 −$42 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $125 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $160 +$49 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $142 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$78 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $135 −$76 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $166 −$80 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $119 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $124 −$30 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $76 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $86 +$36 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$38 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $78 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 06 $155 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 06 $234 −$126 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 06 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $216 −$179 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 04 $207 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 28 $300 −$145 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 28 $300 +$93 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 28 $300 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 28 $350 +$44 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 28 $160 −$153 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 28 $230 −$124 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 27 $200 +$47 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $87 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 977 history records