Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd3…59ae crypto 637 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-3%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%300W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$280
14 days−$181
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -38.5% -44.4% 33% 30% -26.0%
≤30d 437 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 45% -13.1%
≤90d 637 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 45% -14.4%
all 637 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 45% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 45% -14.4%
10% -23.8% 41% -22.6%
15% -31.2% 39% -30.1%
20% -37.9% 38% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses300 / 337
Open positions0
Markets (closed)637 / 637
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 637 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$9 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$20 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1682 history records