Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd1…d24f crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-12%) realized −$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%103W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day69.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$51
other 5% −$1
sports 4% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 46% -22.5%
≤30d 205 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 46% -22.5%
≤90d 205 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 46% -22.5%
all 205 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 46% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 46% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 34% -29.9%
15% -45.3% 22% -36.7%
20% -50.7% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses103 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)205 / 216
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day69.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.99 · official $11.82 (match) · 430 history records