trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 50% | 50% | -2.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 50% | 50% | -2.8% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 33% | 33% | -6.6% |
| all | 20 | -7.1% | -15.9% | 60% | 55% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 55% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -24.0% | 40% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 25% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 10% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $92 | −$8 (-8%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 18¢ | $260 | $87 | −$173 (-66%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $76 | −$24 (-24%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 6¢ | $295 | $31 | −$264 (-90%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $95 | −$51 | -54% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 26 | $143 | +$69 | +48% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 20 | $100 | −$7 | -7% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 08 | $100 | −$22 | -22% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | Feb 21 | $50 | −$43 | -86% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 07 | $120 | +$14 | +12% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jan 04 | $200 | +$41 | +20% |
| Hawks vs. Pistons | Dec 14 | $20 | +$6 | +30% |
| Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 14 | $50 | +$16 | +32% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $138 | +$62 | +45% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 01 | $40 | +$7 | +18% |
| Bears vs. Vikings | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Pistons | Nov 13 | $50 | +$12 | +24% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Nov 13 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16? | Nov 12 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Hornets | Nov 12 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Magic | Nov 12 | $62 | +$38 | +61% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 12 | $180 | +$14 | +8% |
| Eagles vs. Packers | Nov 12 | $50 | +$41 | +82% |
| Ravens vs. Vikings | Nov 11 | $38 | +$18 | +47% |