Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dce…e43f world 30 markets active 15h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$4
politics 11% +$1
economics 7% $0
other 6% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.3%
all 30 -0.6% -10.0% 23% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage324d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $127 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $53 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $24 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 30 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $35 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $22 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $53 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records