Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc7…b583 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$2 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -29.6%
≤30d 2 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -29.6%
≤90d 2 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -29.6%
all 2 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 0% -29.6%
10% -41.3% 0% -36.3%
15% -47.0% 0% -42.5%
20% -52.2% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $88 $84 −$4 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$5 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.42 · official $346.42 (match) · 14 history records