Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc6…d496 weather 281 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$316 (-9%) realized −$314 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%118W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$143
14 days−$169
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -15.9% -23.9% 32% 23% -32.5%
≤30d 212 -19.8% -27.4% 37% 24% -17.2%
≤90d 279 -11.1% -19.5% 42% 29% -19.5%
all 279 -11.1% -19.5% 42% 29% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 29% -19.5%
10% -27.2% 21% -27.2%
15% -34.3% 15% -34.2%
20% -40.7% 13% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses118 / 161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)279 / 281
History coverage64d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? No 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1089%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $19 −$9 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$9 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 26¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 59¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 13¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 6¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 94¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 68¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1059 history records