Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6dc6…2f8c crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$130 (+9%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%32W / 14L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day133.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +11.0% +0.4% 70% 63% +25.2%
≤30d 46 +11.0% +0.4% 70% 63% +25.2%
≤90d 46 +11.0% +0.4% 70% 63% +25.2%
all 46 +11.0% +0.4% 70% 63% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 63% +25.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 50% +13.2%
15% -18.0% 39% +2.2%
20% -26.0% 26% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.65 per $1 lost it wins $4.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses32 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day133.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$111 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$69 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$111 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $213 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $164 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $251 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.75 · official $62.75 (match) · 135 history records