Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dc4…6770 crypto 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,943 (+7%) realized +$25,185 · open +$9,758
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate54%199W / 170L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,540per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$97,805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$12,839
finance 39% +$3,790
other 17% +$5,124
world 3% +$827
economics 0% +$6
sports 0% +$81
weather 0% +$8
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -91.6% -92.4% 4% 1% -59.0%
≤30d 138 -62.1% -65.7% 26% 14% -31.2%
≤90d 316 -33.5% -39.8% 52% 20% -12.2%
all 369 -31.0% -37.5% 54% 20% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.5% 20% -11.5%
10% -43.5% 9% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -49.0% 5% -27.7%
20% -54.0% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$854) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$234 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$97,805
Realized+$25,185
Unrealized+$9,758
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses199 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions51
Markets (closed)369 / 336
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$1,540
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $9,669 $11,061 +$1,392 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 74¢ $6,575 $8,322 +$1,746 (+27%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 87¢ 90¢ $7,816 $8,077 +$260 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $6,529 $7,152 +$622 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $5,660 $5,913 +$253 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $5,233 $5,661 +$428 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $5,155 $5,621 +$466 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,501 $4,987 +$486 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $3,238 $3,811 +$573 (+18%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $2,399 $3,125 +$726 (+30%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $2,526 $3,022 +$496 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $2,674 $2,944 +$270 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $2,177 $2,458 +$282 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,267 $2,317 +$51 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $1,786 $2,159 +$373 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,978 $2,158 +$180 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $1,408 $1,643 +$235 (+17%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 88¢ 97¢ $1,248 $1,370 +$122 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,107 $1,212 +$105 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 81¢ 92¢ $1,053 $1,203 +$150 (+14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 76¢ $1,240 $1,132 −$108 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $837 $1,019 +$182 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $983 $1,008 +$24 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $882 $992 +$110 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $808 $939 +$130 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7? Jun 22 $103 −$95 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12? Jun 22 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 3? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,700 on September 16? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5? Jun 22 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4600 and $4700 on September 1? Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October? Jun 22 $830 −$830 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 5? Jun 22 $9 −$10 -107%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 13-19? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3900 on September 8? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 1 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19? Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 22 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 3? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October? Jun 22 $810 −$810 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4700 and $4800 on September 1? Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12? Jun 22 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12? Jun 22 $920 −$920 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 1 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 1 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3800 on September 5? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4300 on September 10? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 13-19? Jun 22 $765 −$765 -100%
Ethereum above $4400 on September 3? Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 1? Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7? Jun 22 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October? Jun 22 $865 −$865 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 22 $1,771 −$1,771 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Jun 22 $100 −$105 -105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October? Jun 22 $1,260 −$1,300 -103%
Ethereum above $3800 on September 10? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2? Jun 22 $6 −$53 -883%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2? Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 22-28? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 25? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 8? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $457 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $112 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $210 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $736 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 90¢ $2,372 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 89¢ $2,525 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $393 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,596 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $118 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $145 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $132 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,444 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,787 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $806 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $3,379 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $2,339 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $5,542 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $1,317 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $6,369 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $70 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $97 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $213 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $143 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $143 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $136 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,805.39 · official $97,805.39 (match) · 3500 history records