Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc4…2603 other 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$546 (-7%) realized −$579 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%47W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$162
14 days−$102
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$98
world 26% −$248
sports 17% −$405
crypto 2% +$3
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -15.1% -23.2% 60% 31% -5.8%
≤30d 101 -22.4% -29.8% 46% 29% -11.3%
≤90d 104 -23.6% -30.9% 45% 28% -16.5%
all 104 -23.6% -30.9% 45% 28% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 28% -16.5%
10% -37.5% 20% -24.5%
15% -43.5% 13% -31.8%
20% -49.1% 12% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses47 / 57
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)104 / 124
History coverage49d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $190 $199 +$9 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 99¢ $160 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $162 $166 +$4 (+3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 99¢ 98¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 84¢ 98¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Norway to win the second half? No 86¢ 81¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? Yes 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 30¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $50 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $62 +$9 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $190 +$40 +21%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $180 +$9 +5%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $400 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $590 +$5 +1%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $501 +$14 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $501 +$20 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $112 +$13 +12%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $287 +$72 +25%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $362 +$14 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $359 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1,097 +$86 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -89%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $167 −$43 -26%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$23 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +104%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +369%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $150 18m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $32 20m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $2 26m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28m
Norway to win the second half? BUY No 86¢ $15 31m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $30 37m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 42m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 99¢ $84 55m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $99 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 58¢ $19 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $79 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $19 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No $1 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $217 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 85¢ $60 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $62 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 86¢ $89 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $101 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 22h
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $30 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $100 36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $80 37h
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 60¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.19 · official $811.19 (match) · 243 history records