Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6dc3…2a13 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$153 (-0%) realized −$63 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%50W / 18L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$878per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,498
7 days−$659
14 days−$444
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$434
sports 13% −$244
politics 3% −$755
world 3% +$58
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 70% 20% -12.7%
≤30d 45 -3.4% -12.6% 73% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 68 -3.3% -12.5% 74% 35% -10.2%
all 68 -3.3% -12.5% 74% 35% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 35% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 7% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 4% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,660) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$329 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4,770
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses50 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage90d
Avg bet$878
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 80¢ $4,860 $4,770 −$90 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $830 −$87 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $628 +$9 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $997 +$121 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,660 −$1,211 -73%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,880 −$330 -18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,709 +$291 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,679 +$321 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,890 +$110 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $576 +$24 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,908 +$92 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $190 +$10 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $186 +$14 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $184 +$16 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $184 +$16 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $94 +$3 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,938 +$9 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$14 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,935 +$65 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$41 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $941 +$59 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $310 +$53 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $530 −$27 -5%
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Jun 12 $111 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $132 −$10 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $181 +$19 +11%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +22%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $9 +$1 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $63 +$13 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $45 +$5 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $4 $0 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $179 +$19 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $268 +$11 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $80 +$44 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $100 +$18 +18%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $133 −$30 -23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $170 −$26 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $4,982 +$1,974 +40%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $500 −$492 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $4,888 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $744 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $830 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $637 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1,118 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 23¢ $449 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $1,660 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 78¢ $1,550 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 94¢ $1,880 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $5,709 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $2,679 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $533 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $172 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $86 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $86 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $515 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $172 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $258 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $576 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $1,717 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $21 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $21 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $62 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $87 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $190 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $186 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,770.00 · official $4,770.00 (match) · 228 history records