Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6dc3…f57e
world · 48 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,839 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,875 · open −$6,036
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52,466
Realized+$13,875
Unrealized−$6,036
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses30 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6,482
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 9 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$2,606
14 days+$3,757
30 days+$12,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 80¢ $37,177 $33,029 −$4,148 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 87¢ $11,977 $10,912 −$1,065 (-9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 93¢ 94¢ $5,000 $5,024 +$24 (+0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 70¢ 56¢ $4,191 $3,397 −$793 (-19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $122 $70 −$51 (-42%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 38¢ 35¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 85¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 76¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$11 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $49,436 +$1,553 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $7,133 +$437 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,400 +$600 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $155 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $121 +$9 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20,892 +$798 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $475 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,501 +$46 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $802 +$186 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $2,656 +$131 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $55 −$25 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $74 −$3 -4%
James Comey arrested by May 15? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $26 −$4 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $15,957 +$1,171 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $34,691 +$3,612 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $55,505 +$1,851 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $9,660 +$830 +9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $103 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $9,379 +$623 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $6,006 +$594 +10%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 16 $2,399 +$76 +3%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $20,436 +$1,248 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $93 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $88 +$8 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,129 +$7 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $118 +$6 +6%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 02 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $1,003 +$13 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 29 $1,536 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $98 −$24 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 26 $89 +$9 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $310 +$119 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 99% +$7,795
other 1% +$45
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $8 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $8 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $11 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $39 27m
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $99 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $62 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 96¢ $58 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $88 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $7 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $2,876 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $12 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9,600 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $35,422 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $40,498 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $2,006 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $416 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $920 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $136 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $12 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $4 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 91¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 93¢ $14 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 93¢ $149 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.6% -4.4% 100% 17% -6.0%
≤30d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 12% -4.6%
≤90d 39 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 13% -4.6%
all 39 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 13% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 13% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 8% -13.7%
15% -28.2% 5% -22.0%
20% -35.2% 3% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,465.71 · official $52,405.97 (match) · 570 history records