Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6D 0x6dbc…82b2 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,988 (-17%) realized −$2,988 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,456per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$3,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4,098
other 12% −$5
crypto 8% +$2
world 6% +$18
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 3 -31.2% -37.8% 33% 0% -80.7%
≤90d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 29% 0% -51.6%
all 12 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 8% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 8% -33.2%
10% -29.6% 8% -39.6%
15% -36.4% 0% -45.5%
20% -42.6% 0% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$845 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,456
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Jun 24 $491 −$8 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $325 +$26 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? May 24 $305 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $446 +$1 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,065 −$7 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $988 −$38 -4%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $1,114 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $1,316 −$20 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 08 $1,482 +$2 +0%
Bourg-en-Bresse vs. Boulazac Feb 08 $3,040 +$960 +32%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 22 $3,800 −$1,900 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $67 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $102 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $107 2h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $106 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $1,431 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $217 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $16 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $2 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $16 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $576 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $691 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $150 18d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $72 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $70 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $57 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $58 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $65 19d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $352 20d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $325 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $305 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $305 33d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $448 57d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 89¢ $446 64d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $289 69d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $770 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records