Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dbb…8eb9 world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
other 25% $0
politics 19% +$1
sports 8% −$11
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 65 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 2% -9.3%
all 83 -1.8% -11.1% 39% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage543d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $35 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $69 −$3 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $76 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $76 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 +$3 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $30 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $85 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $152 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $93 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $8 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $6 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $38 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $24 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $15 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $35 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $31 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.91 · official $35.40 · 321 history records