Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dba…6929 crypto 361 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-2%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%140W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$34
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$152
sports 30% −$832
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +42.8% +29.2% 50% 43% -5.8%
≤30d 35 +36.1% +23.1% 51% 46% -14.4%
≤90d 361 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 36% -15.2%
all 361 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 36% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 36% -15.2%
10% -20.4% 31% -23.3%
15% -28.1% 25% -30.7%
20% -35.2% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses140 / 221
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage63d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $157 +$32 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $164 +$49 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $159 +$235 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $164 +$35 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +74%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $196 −$193 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$57 -96%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $56 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $139 −$137 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 +$14 +58%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $31 +$76 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $74 −$69 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$33 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $73 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $94 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$35 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$38 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $68 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $47 +$30 +63%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner May 24 $56 −$43 -77%
Dota 2: Recrent Team vs by Owl Team - Game 2 Winner May 23 $6 +$2 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $23 +$25 +105%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $40 −$16 -41%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $38 +$37 +97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner May 23 $73 −$70 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $34 +$41 +121%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $42 +$2 +4%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League May 22 $51 −$9 -17%
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $46 +$5 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 16 $8 −$8 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $189 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $394 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $159 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $156 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $157 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 53¢ $196 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $59 6d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 49¢ $56 6d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 6¢ $3 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $139 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $39 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 23¢ $25 12d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 1¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records