Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6db9…4c59 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$14 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$748
politics 19% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +48.6% +34.5% 75% 75% +41.5%
≤30d 5 +43.2% +29.5% 80% 80% +31.6%
≤90d 5 +43.2% +29.5% 80% 80% +31.6%
all 5 +43.2% +29.5% 80% 80% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 80% +31.6%
10% +17.1% 60% +19.0%
15% +5.8% 60% +7.5%
20% -4.6% 60% -3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$178 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.03 per $1 lost it wins $5.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage26d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $700 $655 −$45 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$130 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $502 +$432 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $299 +$230 +77%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $185 −$178 -96%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $496 +$105 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $240 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $153 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $204 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 54¢ $507 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 43¢ $102 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 53¢ $502 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $109 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $76 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 56¢ $203 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 56¢ $96 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-2 BUY 4¢ $103 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $601 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 72¢ $272 25d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $224 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.45 · official $655.45 (match) · 20 history records