Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6db9…4ab5
other · 136 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$799 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,561 · open −$6,469
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199,569
Realized+$3,561
Unrealized−$6,469
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses61 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions184
Markets (closed)359 / 136
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2,385
Trades / day218.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 184 History 359 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85,461
7 days−$69,311
14 days+$7,604
30 days+$3,561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $12,907 $12,906 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? No 98¢ 99¢ $10,738 $10,804 +$65 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9,633 $9,563 −$70 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $9,170 $8,815 −$355 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? No 95¢ 96¢ $7,132 $7,204 +$71 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? No 84¢ 86¢ $6,720 $6,840 +$120 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $6,744 $6,772 +$27 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 78¢ $6,075 $5,812 −$262 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 68¢ $5,914 $5,736 −$177 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $4,998 $5,017 +$18 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3,459 $4,950 +$1,491 (+43%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 82¢ $4,499 $4,595 +$96 (+2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 70¢ 72¢ $4,229 $4,380 +$151 (+4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 28¢ $3,611 $4,116 +$504 (+14%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,184 $3,958 +$775 (+24%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 77¢ $3,906 $3,713 −$193 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4,253 $3,619 −$634 (-15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,923 $3,584 −$338 (-9%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4,451 $3,500 −$951 (-21%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3,813 $3,427 −$386 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 46¢ $4,409 $3,409 −$999 (-23%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? No 89¢ 90¢ $2,902 $2,951 +$49 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,354 $2,895 −$459 (-14%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 92¢ $2,663 $2,618 −$45 (-2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 91¢ $2,566 $2,463 −$103 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM event Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 14 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $923 −$923 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 6 ET? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1,231 −$1,231 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in February? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 14 $425 −$425 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $0 +$302 +1876543%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $874 −$874 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 14 $1,609 −$1,609 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 14 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$203 +342%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $422 −$437 -103%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 14 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Jun 14 $722 −$722 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $1,465 +$1,326 +90%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Jun 14 $481 −$481 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Will England win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1,360 −$1,107 -81%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win Brooklyn in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Gen Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$31,705
politics 7% +$59,203
sports 2% −$950
crypto 2% −$123
world 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $152 28m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $402 39m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 41m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,310 42m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 43m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $358 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -16.9% -24.9% 15% 9% -35.9%
≤30d 359 -6.2% -15.1% 17% 11% -16.1%
≤90d 359 -6.2% -15.1% 17% 11% -16.1%
all 359 -6.2% -15.1% 17% 11% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover218.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 11% -16.1%
10% -23.2% 7% -24.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.7% 7% -31.5%
20% -37.5% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199,568.90 · official $199,571.53 (match) · 3500 history records