Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6db5…7b87 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,459per market
Trades / day128.8pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$254
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
32.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$37 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3,459
Trades / day128.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $127 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4,381 −$46 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10,391 −$207 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $153 −$3 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $454 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,382 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 5m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $71 5m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 6m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $482 33m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $200 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $42 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 40m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 43m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $396 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $151 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $257 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $428 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $404 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $436 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $143 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $193 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.62 · official $127.68 (match) · 651 history records