Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6db5…a51d other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$4
world 25% +$2
politics 15% −$1
sports 9% +$8
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 3 -4.8% -13.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 +144.3% +121.0% 43% 14% -8.5%
all 32 +31.5% +19.0% 25% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 9% -7.9%
10% +7.6% 9% -16.7%
15% -2.8% 3% -24.8%
20% -12.3% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage259d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 −$1 -18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $1 $0 -11%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $3 −$1 -29%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 23 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 12 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $17 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $17 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $33 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $5 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $28 43h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $8 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $37 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $35 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.91 · official $33.05 (match) · 114 history records