Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6db3…304a world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+10%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate61%23W / 15L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$35
other 16% +$2
politics 8% +$66
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.5% -4.5% 67% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 5 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 20% -4.8%
≤90d 13 +158.5% +133.9% 62% 23% -4.9%
all 38 +95.0% +76.4% 61% 13% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +76.4% 13% -3.8%
10% +59.6% 8% -13.0%
15% +44.1% 8% -21.4%
20% +30.0% 5% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +103% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×9.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.86 per $1 lost it wins $15.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage482d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $52 +$6 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $123 +$8 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $76 +$7 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $27 +$10 +37%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $31 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Dec 09 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $1 $0 -43%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 04 $34 +$5 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 03 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 21? Mar 23 $1 +$62 +4248%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 21 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $28 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $30 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $22 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $37 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $1 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $26 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $8 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $49 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $57 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $42 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $1 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $40 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $2 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $51 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records