Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dab…6665 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1
other 17% $0
politics 11% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 33 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage392d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $29 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $58 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $30 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +26%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or below on May 31? Jun 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 30 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 29 $26 $0 +1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or higher on May May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Jack Doohan finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $33 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $5 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $27 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $32 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 44h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $29 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records