Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6daa…1b65 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$297 (+4%) realized +$312 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$139
finance 42% +$413
world 1% +$4
sports 1% −$90
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.1% -30.5% 45% 45% -7.5%
≤30d 13 -18.4% -26.1% 54% 46% -6.3%
≤90d 13 -18.4% -26.1% 54% 46% -6.3%
all 13 -18.4% -26.1% 54% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 46% -6.3%
10% -33.2% 23% -15.3%
15% -39.7% 23% -23.4%
20% -45.6% 15% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$167 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized+$312
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage25d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $224 $257 +$33 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $166 $235 +$69 (+42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $188 $133 −$55 (-29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $72 $87 +$15 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $79 +$3 (+4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ $115 $28 −$88 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2,050 +$307 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $765 −$760 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $687 +$293 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $834 +$145 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$178 +88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$190 +183%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $780 +$92 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $636 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $765 47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $285 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $578 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $979 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $501 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $381 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $29 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $334 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $22 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $12 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $83 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,720 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $208 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $61 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.47 · official $1,127.27 (match) · 82 history records