Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6da8…ec45 crypto 565 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$194 (+1%) realized +$222 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%460W / 96L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$33
14 days−$76
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$170
other 25% −$109
world 8% +$95
politics 0% −$8
tech 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.2% -17.0% 79% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 96 +2.4% -7.3% 91% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 318 -17.1% -25.0% 73% 17% -11.5%
all 556 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 29% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 17% -17.7%
15% -27.8% 10% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$959
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses460 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)556 / 565
History coverage173d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 91¢ 93¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 94¢ 86¢ $139 $127 −$13 (-9%)
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? No 68¢ 98¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 75¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 90¢ 6¢ $27 $2 −$25 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $572 +$26 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $326 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $221 −$15 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $149 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $101 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 6? Jun 06 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $2 +$6 +282%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $98 40m
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $235 15h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 72¢ $204 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $501 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $50 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $20 45h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $34 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $139 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $330 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $19 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 4d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $27 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $958.87 · official $958.87 (match) · 1469 history records