Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6da5…be77 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$492 (+9%) realized +$493 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$552
7 days+$1,243
14 days+$1,229
30 days+$1,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$786
sports 24% +$179
crypto 9% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +62.4% +46.9% 67% 56% +16.6%
≤30d 23 +48.4% +34.2% 57% 48% +13.9%
≤90d 23 +48.4% +34.2% 57% 48% +13.9%
all 23 +48.4% +34.2% 57% 48% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.2% 48% +13.9%
10% +21.4% 39% +3.0%
15% +9.7% 35% -6.9%
20% -1.1% 35% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$63 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$493
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage12d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $203 +$295 +145%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will B Jun 17 $51 +$307 +599%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $56 +$252 +447%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $194 +$132 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $432 +$263 +61%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $340 −$197 -58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,468 +$182 +12%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$7 +7%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $72 +$86 +119%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $186 +$195 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $288 +$94 +33%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $43 +$36 +84%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $465 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $112 −$5 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $73 −$9 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$7 -7%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $62 +$11 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $53 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $51 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 40¢ $203 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will B BUY 14¢ $51 38h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Fra BUY 14¢ $149 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $151 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on BUY 12¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 94¢ $308 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $266 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $56 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $695 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $194 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $432 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $102 3d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $109 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $110 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $85 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $592 4d
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes $46 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $44 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $102 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $99 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $154 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $158 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.86 · official $200.86 · 70 history records