Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6da4…d5c2 crypto 1330 markets active 2d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+1%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%1235W / 95L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$103
14 days−$105
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$159
other 1% −$176
sports 1% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.4% -12.6% 85% 16% -16.1%
≤30d 305 -1.9% -11.3% 92% 6% -12.5%
≤90d 1070 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 5% -9.6%
all 1330 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 8% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$32 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1235 / 95
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1330 / 1330
History coverage94d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1330 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$11 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$43 +43%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $94 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $115 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $101 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.87 · official $70.75 (match) · 3136 history records