Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6D 0x6d9c…5369 sports 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+3%) realized +$280 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%261W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$203
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$132
crypto 1% −$12
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.6% +5.5% 72% 72% +16.7%
≤30d 29 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 62% +7.6%
≤90d 414 -2.8% -12.0% 63% 58% -8.1%
all 414 -2.8% -12.0% 63% 58% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 58% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 41% -16.9%
15% -28.1% 26% -24.9%
20% -35.2% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses261 / 153
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)414 / 416
History coverage72d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 34¢ $46 $28 −$18 (-39%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner Team AION 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $17 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger Jun 29 $16 +$4 +22%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $10 −$8 -75%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $23 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $77 +$33 +43%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $32 +$28 +89%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $51 +$29 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 +$41 +101%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $66 +$22 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 +$32 +105%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 +$18 +180%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Jun 27 $30 +$25 +82%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $6 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $70 +$13 +18%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $45 +$29 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $33 +$12 +36%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2 +$1 +36%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $19 +$6 +33%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $17 −$5 -30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$18 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $29 −$27 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $7 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2AM ET May 27 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 45¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $46 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 23¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL MASQ 0¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 22¢ $9 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 22¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 83¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 83¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 39¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 39¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 39¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 39¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger SELL Just Players 49¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger SELL Atreides 50¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Just Players 41¢ $8 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 100¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Atreides 39¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner SELL BALU 0¢ $0 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $11 5h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 31¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 31¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.01 · official $28.01 (match) · 1814 history records