Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d9b…a7da world 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$19 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$19
other 30% −$9
politics 17% +$10
culture 7% −$14
sports 3% +$36
economics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 25 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 32% -15.8%
≤90d 55 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 33% -8.1%
all 55 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 33% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 33% -8.1%
10% -9.2% 25% -16.9%
15% -18.0% 18% -24.9%
20% -26.0% 16% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)55 / 77
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $54 $66 +$13 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 59¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? Yes 98¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? No 67¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%? No 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $2 $0 +22%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $8 +$2 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 +$1 +56%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $2 +$6 +300%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 202 May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit New York in 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 22, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $4 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $4 $0 -1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 -12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chris Tungseth win American Idol Season 24? May 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? May 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $2 −$2 -99%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump post "Secret Service" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $2 $0 +17%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? May 04 $4 $0 +12%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in May? May 02 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $4 +$1 +32%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $6 +$1 +21%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 01 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha May 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? May 01 $21 −$7 -35%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 23 $2 +$1 +64%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $54 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Wrestlefest: Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton Apr 19 $14 +$36 +260%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 44m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.35 · official $99.53 · 423 history records