Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d92…42d7 crypto 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized +$17 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%74W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$120
14 days−$83
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$187
other 16% −$102
world 6% −$1
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -37.8% -43.7% 30% 30% -33.4%
≤30d 55 -30.5% -37.1% 31% 31% -25.5%
≤90d 182 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 38% -17.5%
all 182 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 38% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -17.5%
10% -32.6% 34% -25.4%
15% -39.1% 23% -32.6%
20% -45.1% 16% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses74 / 108
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)182 / 193
History coverage73d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 22¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 50¢ 8¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $72 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 −$3 -10%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 +$6 +23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +139%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $27 −$25 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $7 −$2 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $55 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $98 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $98 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 23¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.47 · official $84.48 (match) · 626 history records