Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d90…a6e8 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$43
sports 15% +$20
world 2% −$17
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.6% -6.3% 75% 50% +6.2%
≤30d 11 -8.2% -16.9% 64% 55% +8.1%
≤90d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 60% 55% -14.0%
all 20 -12.7% -21.0% 60% 55% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 55% -14.0%
10% -28.6% 45% -22.2%
15% -35.5% 40% -29.8%
20% -41.8% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$35 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage50d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$23 +42%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $60 +$34 +57%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $160 +$32 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris FC end in a draw? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $115 +$33 +29%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $7 +$5 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $192 −$190 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $55 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 31¢ $10 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $26 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $55 14d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 33d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $24 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 45d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 82¢ $54 45d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 45d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 83¢ $106 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 46d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 47d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 57¢ $7 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $192 49d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $115 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.62 · official $198.62 (match) · 44 history records