Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d8f…aef9 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-14%) realized −$150 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$21
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 41% −$25
politics 23% −$25
other 16% −$55
tech 9% +$4
sports 6% −$72
world 2% −$3
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.1% -16.0% 55% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 38 -25.9% -33.0% 32% 0% -22.8%
≤90d 38 -25.9% -33.0% 32% 0% -22.8%
all 38 -25.9% -33.0% 32% 0% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 0% -22.8%
10% -39.4% 0% -30.2%
15% -45.2% 0% -36.9%
20% -50.6% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 82¢ 36¢ $13 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 37¢ 2¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -36%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 16 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 16 $86 −$5 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $153 −$2 -1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $24 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 10 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 09 $19 −$8 -41%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 09 $24 −$4 -18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 08 $41 −$15 -36%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 08 $24 −$8 -34%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $9 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -45%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 −$17 -52%
Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $12 −$5 -39%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 07 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -25%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $14 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vortex CGO vs Basement Bobs - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL No 23¢ $4 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 41¢ $16 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $52 11h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 46¢ $1 22h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 46¢ $2 23h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 46¢ $1 27h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 59¢ $7 29h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 59¢ $5 29h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 44h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 44h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 87¢ $15 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 37¢ $7 2d
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 35¢ $7 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 86¢ $15 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 39¢ $16 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.27 · official $6.27 (match) · 205 history records