Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d8c…99f6 crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$370 (+1%) realized +$892 · open −$522
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 65L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$8,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,740
7 days+$4,488
14 days+$3,810
30 days+$4,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$3,491
other 30% −$1,041
world 18% −$604
crypto 14% −$1,617
tech 2% +$152
culture 1% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +47.1% +33.1% 71% 62% +23.9%
≤30d 51 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 47% +13.4%
≤90d 110 -21.2% -28.7% 41% 36% -5.5%
all 110 -21.2% -28.7% 41% 36% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 36% -5.5%
10% -35.5% 33% -14.5%
15% -41.8% 27% -22.8%
20% -47.5% 24% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -47% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$122 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$8,162
Realized+$892
Unrealized−$522
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions24
Markets (closed)110 / 134
History coverage59d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $2,100 $2,093 −$7 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,100 $1,156 +$56 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $800 $796 −$4 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 21¢ 10¢ $1,040 $508 −$531 (-51%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 81¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 73¢ 52¢ $450 $324 −$126 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 74¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 75¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 72¢ 69¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$486 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$94 +92%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $711 +$803 +113%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $304 +$58 +19%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $403 +$117 +29%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $404 +$134 +33%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $506 +$301 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $869 +$2,462 +283%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,422 +$1,056 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 +$20 +2%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $900 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $1,200 −$15 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $1,145 +$55 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $773 −$764 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$337 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $141 +$30 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $404 +$221 +55%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $203 −$200 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 30 $203 +$96 +47%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 30 $201 +$40 +20%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $201 +$16 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $102 +$314 +307%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 24 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $304 +$188 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 72¢ $50 55m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $50 55m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $50 55m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No $50 55m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $50 55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $196 4h
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $800 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $305 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $407 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $101 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $305 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $403 46h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 93¢ $538 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $404 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $500 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $104 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $400 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $1,100 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $807 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $606 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,162.16 · official $8,159.55 (match) · 236 history records